Since I last posted, there have been some tremendous events taking place - both in the real and footballing world. In today's piece I would like to discuss African football. More specifically, I would like to examine political climate in Northern Africa and its possible effect on two particular national teams: Egypt and Libya.
Before I begin to rehash the events that led to the overthrowing of Mubarak and subsequently revolutions across the Arabic world, I want to establish the guidelines for this particular post. I don't know squat about politics so I plan to stay out of that. I don't understand why exactly either government was overthrown besides that the peoples of Egypt and Libya were unhappy. Regardless, I will attempt to analyze the affects these revolutions could have on the national teams of the two respective nations.
According to Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski, in their 2009 published Soccernomics, a national team's success stems from three factors: 1) its nation's population, 2) GDP and 3) team experience. In their comprensive analysis of the beautiful game, Kuper and Szymanski come to such conclusions that England are, despite the media, overachievers and nations such as the U.S. (yes, us!) and Turkey will be future powers in world football. I will follow the path of Soccernomics and highlight how the turmoil in Northern Africa will influence Egypt and Libya.
In footballing terms, Egypt and Libya should not even be used in the same sentence. Egypt has won the Africa Nations Cup seven times, including an impressive 3 straight tournaments. At the end of that run, the Pharaohs were ranked as high as 9th by FIFA. When you look at the numbers in terms of Soccernomics, it is no wonder that Egypt has been at the top of African football for so long. They are the most wealthy nation on the continent and second in population only to Nigeria. In terms of experience, Egypt's club teams have won the CAF Champions League 12 times and been runners-up 5. That is 7 more than the next nation (Congo DR).
Last year, the Pharaohs captured their 3rd straight African Nations Cup
However dominant they have been over the past 6 years, Egypt failed to take advantage of a great opportunity when they did not qualify for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. A slow start to African qualifying prevented Egypt from winning the group outright. The Pharaohs valiantly won 2-0 at home against group leaders Algeria to force a neutral site playoff in Sudan. Amidst great controversy, Egypt lost the match 1-0 and the world was denied the chance to see one of the great tournament teams Africa has ever produced.
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While it is yet to be determined how the revolution will affect the Egyptian economy or even population, the events have already had an immediate impact on the Pharaohs' experience. This past February, Egypt were supposed to host the United States for an international friendly to be played in Cairo. That match was quickly cancelled after protesters in opposition to Mubarak began to gather in masses and the threat of violence became evident.
While missing a friendly is not a huge ordeal for Egypt, losing the ability to host a major tournament is a harsh reality that Libya could be facing in the near future. Libya is currently ranked 70th in the FIFA world rankings and holds the dubious distinction of being the only North African nation never to qualify for the World Cup finals. Libya is one of the wealthiest nations in Africa, considered an "upper middle economy". Its population, however, of 6.5 million does not help Libya make waves in terms of world football.
Which is exactly why Libya must gain more experience by playing in major tournaments. The Greens only positive result was in the 1982 Africa Cup of Nations when they were runners-up as the host nation. They would like to replicate that result in 2013 - if they can retain their status as host nation. Currently, one stadium in Benghazi is set to host matches. Benghazi, in the western part of the nation, is the center for Anti-Gaddafi forces. The capital city, Tripoli, has plans to construct two new stadiums for the tournament.
Aside: At this point it might be worth mentioning that the despot Gadaffi's son, Saif al Gadaffi is not only a former player on the Lybian national team but also the former chairman of the Lybian Football Association. I don't think that there is too much to get into detail about this, but its interesting nonetheless.
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The Egyptian U-20 squad is currently in UAE in preparations for the tournament. While Manager Diaa Al-Sayeed and his young men are awaiting news on Libya, they are still concerned about matters back home. “The recent events in Egypt affected us just like they have affected all Egyptian departments. We have got over this crisis and now we are on our way back to our best performance to maintain Egypt’s history forever. I also think now everything is getting better because of the atmosphere in the camp. Playing several friendly games will help us too. Also, all the Egyptian team players have one motivation which is making the Egyptian people happy”.
It is difficult to say what will come of these two footballing nations. Overall, Egypt is much more well-equipped to overcome the crisis, especially since violence does not seem to be on the horizon. We cannot, however, say the same for Libya, as the Arab League, UN and NATO are all discussing the possibility of an armed conflict and no-fly zone. If this aspiring footballing nation hopes to improve in the future, political stability must come first.
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